Dead Internet Theory Gets Another Data Point
The Dead Internet Theory posits that the internet is now mostly 'bots generating anodyne content and pretending to be human.
I'm skeptical because I'm human and as readers are aware I'm fully capable of producing anodyne content.
However, it now comes out that a Whistleblower at Twitter, one very high up in the companies hierarchy, is claiming that Twitter may be as much as 50% bots and ...
...that Twitter violated the terms of an 11-year-old settlement with the Federal Trade Commission by falsely claiming that it had a solid security plan. Zatko’s complaint alleges he had warned colleagues that half the company’s servers were running out-of-date and vulnerable software and that executives withheld dire facts about the number of breaches and lack of protection for user data, instead presenting directors with rosy charts measuring unimportant changes.
If true it means that Elon Musks complaints, based on his own analysis were valid.
It also means that at least in the case of Twitter, "Dead Internet Theory" has some merit.
I have an anecdote related to this. When I stream on Twitch I rarely get more than a few viewers in the course of even a long stream, yet when I look at chat at the very beginning of a stream, even when I'm doing an unscheduled stream, I can have as many as thirty "viewers" at least some of whom are known Twitchbots (like 'ComanderRoot'). This implies that Twitch is at least aware of the bots (as they don't count towards my stream viewership requirements for monetization). I'm one data point and my internet expertise can be summed up as "potato" but in light of these revelations about Twitter, it's food for thought.
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Yeah, of course, not all Twitter bots are actual bots. There are plenty of apparently paid tweeters or even enthusiastic amateurs who repost the same crap (in hopes, perhaps of becoming a paid tweeter).
Posted by: Mauser at Wed Aug 24 23:30:48 2022 (BzEjn)
Notes On Spam
I note that a percentage of spam comments are for a dating site in Sydney.
No doubt they are aimed at the blogs IT administrator.
This leaves me to wonder if all the comments pushing crypto, solar panels, wooden decks, Bangalore whores, or bulk quantities of frozen chicken feet are also misdirected attempts to assist Pixy.
I've tried for several days to put together my thoughts on how bad the Mara Lago raid was and why. I find myself deleting half-written posts in frustration or sitting and staring at the keyboard.
Then I read up on the Spanish Civil War which does not improve my mood.
Two recent op-eds, do sum up the gravity of the situation, though I think both are too sanguine about where we go from here, particularly this one. The other article, I note, while more tempered in its analysis is, like the first essay linked, a call to arms. This is not comforting.
We are on dangerous ground. Half the country, when it acknowledges them at all, looks at the other half with contempt. The other half views them in turn with a mixture of fear and disgust.
This is a state of affairs that cannot stand.
It's not just ignorance and misunderstanding either, both sides have fundamental and irreconcilable differences in their view of the role and function of government, the status and responsibilities of the individual, and the very concept of what is personal space.
I must say that the trend of the last few years is....worrisome.
Polio, a disease that once was a seasonal horror, that killed or paralyzed millions and was only eliminated in North America in 1979 through the genius of Jonas Salk has returned to the U.S.
Inflation, gas shortages domestic terrorism, riots, foreign policy disasters, Weimar-like degeneracy, paranoia and polio. The '70s are here again baby.
1
a) links for the citations seem to indicate one actual case, and wastewater tests.
b) xenophobia is a historical response to disease concerns, and as a response has functional elements. One of the unusual things now was the combination of disease concern with xenophilia. Domestic isolation is relatively pointless when you are bringing in foreign potential carriers constantly and ensuring that they expose a broad range of American society.
c) Obviously, wealthy international travelers and illegals over the southern border are relevant. But, it is notable that the universities seem to run on international graduate students, and hence that university provided guidelines on disease control are careful to avoid ruining the business of a university, while fecklessly ruining the businesses of those without close ties to a university.
d) Polio is unsurprising, it is one of the many diseases that we would expect the current regime to have successfully imported.
e) The wastewater tests are suspicious, because of the implication that it is a novel test, that there is some sort of statistical inference carried out, and because the CDC is involved. Public Health bureaucracies, including the CDC, now have a proven track record of apparent malice when it comes to misconduct regarding statistical models of disease, and regarding tests, especially novel tests.
e) Any of these disease tests is basically an instrument, meaning that if you have good quality control on the individual tests, you need a large number of measurements to calibrate. Right now, something seems to have happened to cause a broad range of issues with quality control. Very likely, the calibration measurements have been few, and not run independently through outside statistical analysis.
f) It is possibly relevant that the opposition leadership appears to be driven heavily by leadership in their eighties, and estimating the effectiveness of talking points off of what would have been effective sixty years ago. Forex, presuming a familiarity with statistical numeracy and with electronic security that would have been true in the 1960s, but is very untrue today. Polio is precisely what such people would choose to fraud in order to try to panic people into another round of lockdowns, forced vaccines, and compelled acceptance of electoral irregularities.
g) Nuking New York City to sterilize the imported diseases there is as reasonable as anything else that people are proposing.
Posted by: PatBuckman at Sun Aug 7 10:43:52 2022 (r9O5h)
2
I support option G, preferably while their federal delegation is home on recess....
Posted by: Mauser at Sun Aug 7 13:43:39 2022 (BzEjn)
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Once the existing policy is costly enough, consideration of alternatives can be batshit crazy, and still be as sane.
Monkeypox starts to make an extreme criminalization of sexual promiscuity look reasonable. Maybe NYC's population density is too high. Maybe Boulder, CO, has a population density that is too high, or just a population that is too high.
It seems like that now we only have factions that are stressed to the point of insanity. We will /not/ be calming down for a while, unless something that is specifically unpredictable happens.
Many of the remedies easy to hand have costs that would also be pretty bad.
Not under my control, and that is most likely a very good thing in a lot of ways. One thing that may be under my control, I can try to calm down, do something productive, and realize that some of my immediate impulses would actually probably be more costly than what I want to fix.
I don't know. That is a useful statement.
Posted by: Pat Buckman at Sun Aug 7 16:48:13 2022 (r9O5h)
4
Pakistan is having polio outbreaks, and that is right next door to Afghanistan, and the Taliban was suspicious of polio vaccine so a lot of kids never got it as kids.
Posted by: Suburbanbanshee at Thu Aug 11 19:15:43 2022 (sF8WE)
I am ASSUMING that something in this video activated a Twittermob, but I cannot for the life of me figure out what was concerning enough to pull it.
If any of you know, please, in the comments, let me know exactly what special group of snowflakes this cute little video is theoretically disrespecting.
Posted by: Mauser at Sat Aug 6 21:06:51 2022 (BzEjn)
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Thanks to the unknown (cough) benefactor who uploaded it to Bitchute. I did catch it before it was privatized, but good to see it still around in some form.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at Sun Aug 7 20:04:27 2022 (PiXy!)
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"also some people said that her chasing an indonesian on horseback while wielding a gun was a slavery mention"
Posted by: Pete Zaitcev at Mon Aug 8 11:06:43 2022 (LZ7Bg)
Wonderduck
Wonderduck suffered a blood clot 18 months ago and has been bedridden since. He was dealt a terrible hand when his hospitalization, but not his physical therapy was covered by insurance.
He has been struggling to literally get back on his feet since that time.
Today, for the first time in 18 months he got up and walked unassisted aside from touching one of a set of parrallel bars for balance.
Achievement Unlocked
Today marks one year since I flopped around on the floor like a dying fish to reach under the bed to get my phone to call the ambulance to take me to the hospital where I was diagnosed with a stroke.
I woke up this morning.
A small act of defiance to be sure, but one that pleases me quite a bit.
In celebration of having written a long post that did not evaporate when I hit publish, I'm going south for a few days to visit my 80 year old parents who have no computer and no internet beyond the potential for dial-up offered by their land line.
Blogging will resume this weekend and the next stream on the Twitch channel will be Friday night.
We'll begin by watching some silent DINOSAUR movies! The short surviving clip from The Ghost of Slumber Mountain ( 1918 )...(the very first live-action film featuring dinosaurs!) will be followed by the classic 1925 adaptation of Arthur Conan Doyle's novel The Lost World!
Since those films together are less than 2 hours long, and our Friday streams are scheduled to be at least 4 hours, we will follow the thunder lizards with a few hours of adventuring in Eorzea with the superbly entertaining MMORPG Final Fantasy 14 Online.
Come by and join us for the fun this Friday, August 5th, at 9:00PM EDT / 1:00AM UTC at twitch.tv/brickmuppet !
************
Next Monday at 6:00pm EDT / 10:00pm UTC we will continue last night's fighting and grilling with the quirky Metroidvania cooking game Dungeon Munchies.
There are other games in prospect, pending the arrival of some equipment so stay tuned!
While the channel still isn't monetized and thus we can't use our emotes in the channel just yet, we are prepared for that eventual contingency as the channel has just acquired a fully operational...wiggly!
Some Damn Fool Thing About an Old Property LeaseThe Diplomat reports on a strange international legal situation that could add yet another complication to the Balkans-in-1914-like conglomeration of conflicting interests, unclear jurisdictions, centuries old grievances, ethic hatreds, overlapping/contradictory treaties and great power intrigue that is Southeast Asia.
The issue has its origins in a 1658 agreement by the
">Sultanate of Brunei to cede the province of Sabah to the Sultanate of Sulu as compensation for Sulu's assistance in putting down a Bruneian revolt.
This was somewhat complicated by an 1878 agreement with the British Empire to lease the province... a contract which was continued by the Malaysian government who continued to pay the modest stipend to the heirs of the long defunct Sultanate of Sulu after the country gained independence from the Brits.
The Sultanate of Sulu covered northern Borneo, islands in the Sulu Sea and the southern end of Mindanao, today the southernmost big island of the Philippines.
The Sultanate of Sulu was the focus of considerable ire from the Spanish who, having claimed the Philippines, did not recognize their territorial claim over those islands. Sulu never actually signed a treaty of surrender however and when the U.S. acquired the Philippines in 1898 the centuries old conflict was still going on in the region known as Morro. The U.S. DID get a treaty from the last Sultan of Sulu in 1915, ending the bloody 'Morro Rebellion' and the last reigning Sultan retreated to Northern Borneo where his remaining lands were subsequently incorporated into British possessions there.
The area became part of Malaysia when that country gained independence but the lease continued to be paid to the heirs of the Sultanate....
Well...until 2013 when the heirs of the Sultanate of Sulu started an insurgency that killed at least 60 people in the province of Sabah. Given that this was an attempt by terrorists to re-establish a defunct Sultanate the Malaysian government put a stop to the payments to the family.
From here it gets....complicated.
Because the Sultanate of Sulu had a large par of their historical territories in the Philippines, the Philippines, for most of their existence as an independent country laid claim to Sulu's historical territories in what is now Malaysia including Malaysian islands in the Sulu Sea and northern Borneo. (Note that the U.S. never made this claim)
The Sultanate of Sulu was somewhat at odds with the other Islamic Kingdoms in the area because their interpretation of the Koran was....less nuanced... than the other, comparatively moderate Sultanates in the Southeast Asian archipelago. Their beliefs seem to be somewhat similar to the Whahabists of the middle east. Note that at least one of the Morro factions in the Philippines (which even today are waging a nasty insurgency there) aligned themselves with ISIS a few years ago. The Morro themselves, as mentioned earlier are a Sulu remnant who never accepted the peace treaty.
The heirs to the Sultanate of Sulu consider the Government of Malaysia, to be too moderate to be a legitimate ruler of Muslims.
Thus, when the heirs to the old Sultanate made their putch in Malaysia in 2013 the Malaysian government naturally cut off payments to them.
Which is where Luxembourg gets involved.
The Petronas corporation, Malaysia's big oil conglomerate (you may have heard about a couple of their buildings) holds the actual lease at the crux of all this. Well, the company was just taken to court by the remnants of the Sultanate of Sulu...in, uh, France. There it was found that was found that, Petronas Corporation, by complying with Malaysian government, had unjustly denied the heirs to the Sultanate of Sulu the approximately $5,300 annual stipend that had been promised them by the British in 1878 and grandfathered in upon Malaysian Independence. Thus they were awarded 14.9 B...B...Billion and their subsidiaries (which were registered in Luxembourg) have been seized.
So:
Let us review:
A group of heirs to a defunct kingdom with territorial claims that overlap two countries and known ties to Islamic extremists as been awarded almost 15 billion dollars because a company stopped paying a $5,300/yr lease the company inherited from the British after the government asked the company to please not fund terrorists.
15 billion will buy a lot of suicide vests and other kit, but there are more troubling implications. It appears that the remnants of the Sultanate of Sulu, in addition to insurgents and suicide bombers, possess a weapon that is singularly formidable and heretofore not thought of as a large part of their arsenal.
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While the things are hear about are undoubtedly a filtered sample, I can't recall a single instance where a French court has made a newsworthy decision that didn't fall into the "what alternate reality are they living in" territory. I'd love to hear the reasoning on this one. Starting with why a French court is involved in the first place. I assume it's just a "universal jurisudiction" thing.
Posted by: David at Tue Aug 2 20:01:14 2022 (D6Mju)
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Lessons learned children? When dealing with conquered Muslims, do unto them as they do unto those they conquer: No Muslims, no problems.
Posted by: jabrwok at Thu Aug 4 13:43:00 2022 (T4WaI)
My dislike of the current Speaker of the House is nothing short of Brobdingnagian, but I laud her for standing by an ally. I also think that she and the congressional delegation now HAVE to visit Taiwan as not doing so will send a message of weakness and acquiescence that will almost certainly come back to haunt us most calamitously in the near future.
China, internally, is currently in far greater turmoil than is generally appreciated, (but that even commies are noting) and its leadership cadre are looking for a distraction that can shore up support amongst the people and assure the populace that the regime still has the "Mandate of Heaven", which, while not recognized by the politburo, is a deeply ingrained cultural tradition in China.
Things are sufficiently messed up in the Middle Kingdom right now that it is quite possible that Xi might roll the dice in hopes of a 'short victorious war'.
Taiwan is where the vast majority of our semi-conductors are made, at least the ones not made with Chinese spyware. Taiwan is actually of such strategic importance that it's a place that most Democrats, Republicans, and even some Libertarians are willing to fight for for both moral, economic and strategic reasons.
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I have much skepticism that anything close to a majority or a plurality in the Democrat Party are willing to fight for Taiwan, especially given the comfortable and profitable relations said Democrats had with the PRC. If anything, I am surprised that the Democrats have not given up Taiwan already to the PRC (Recall that during the Obama era, some Democrat brain-trust were writing opinion pieces in periodicals speculating on how much the PRC might be willing to pay the US if the US gave Taiwan to them Commies.).
While there are Republicans who are willing to enforce the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act (Adam Kinzinger, for all his despicable behavior, was originally a major supporter of Taiwan to the point of endorsing the US supplying nuclear weapons to the ROC.), there are precious few Democrats - and that is before getting to Biden and other Democrats finding joy in surrendering something important to the US to our enemies.
No, the Democrats are not supporters of Taiwan, either inherently or on a transactional basis - and it would be fooling oneself to believe the idea.
Posted by: cxt217 at Mon Aug 1 00:33:50 2022 (2tHvf)
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Yeah, I'm shocked that Pelosi would do this; I thought she was firmly on the side of 'sell out everyone to the PRC'.
Probably more Americans are boycotting goods made with Red China's slave labor. Perhaps MOSS are no longer able to make their payments to the California faction of Democrats.
Posted by: Pat Buckman at Mon Aug 1 00:45:09 2022 (r9O5h)
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I'm reminded that the Democrats were probably pushing war with Russia in the hope that it would be excuse to clamp down on internal dissent.
So, this may be the same motivation as that absolutely insane gun control thing that the House just passed.
I don't think Pelosi is willing to sacrifice herself for the sake of their goal But, if their motivations are purely domestic, they may be surprised at the PRC not playing along.
Posted by: Pat Buckman at Mon Aug 1 01:02:23 2022 (r9O5h)
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Pelosi is a bid of an odd duck with regards to China. She takes her progressivism seriously, and has at least partially supported if not even pushed for most of our "security actions" that are nominally in support of defending oppressed peoples, eg our actions in Libya, Syria, etc. Many many years ago she visited the PRC, and was rather rudely chased away from Tiananmen Square, which she did not take kindly. On the other hand, she's generally happy to take most anyone's donations and happily sits down at the table with just about anyone who mouths the right sayings, even when it turns out that they are members in good standing of the CCP.
If China goes after Taiwan, either via pure military force or just untenable diplomatic pressure, and we don't step in with a credible response, it will basically mark the end of the current era of international security arrangements. It will be every nation for themselves, take what you think you can grab and hold, and things will get very ugly, very quickly.
Posted by: David at Mon Aug 1 02:18:00 2022 (D6Mju)
5If China goes after Taiwan, either via pure military force or just
untenable diplomatic pressure, and we don't step in with a credible
response, it will basically mark the end of the current era of
international security arrangements.
Obama already killed that with both the nuclear deal with Iran and voiding Prague Agreement. Given the Biden is even less willing to use force to back US interests or even support them, and it is amazing that PRC has not done more sooner.
Posted by: cxt217 at Mon Aug 1 11:48:05 2022 (2tHvf)
Nichelle Nichols, best known for playing Lt. Uhura on the original Star Trek series, has passed away at 89.
Nichols was a talented entertainer who appeared in 27 films and whose career saw her give superb performances as an actor, voice actor, dancer, choreographer, singer, songwriter and director.
She also worked for NASA, initially as recruiter for women and minority employees, (successfully, she personally recruited Guy Bluford and Sally Ride among others) but later she worked for the agency in more substantive roles. She was an amateur astronomer and a lifelong space enthusiast who served for many years on the board of governors of the National Space Society.
She was most famous for her role as Lt. Uhura, on Star Trek, a role that she gave considerable gravitas to. Most other female characters in the original series tended to be 'window dressing' but Nichols' character gave off a distinct impression of competence and professionalism. She managed this while being one of the best looking women on the show.
Most of us know of her through her work on the Science Fiction convention circuit, where she was always charming and professional.
She certainly led a long and full life, but she will be sorely missed.
The U.S. press, as is their wont, are rather maligning his memory, but Abe was one of the most consequential world leaders of the last 20 years.
He was certainly a patriot and a nationalist, but he was also very much an internationalist, working tirelessly to negotiate defense and trade agreements with other members of the Asia-Pacific region, contributing to peace and stability in that part of the world. He recognized China's dark turn earlier than most world leaders, and while most countries refused to take the growing threat seriously, Abe was tenacious in setting up alliances and agreements against considerable diplomatic headwinds.
The free world would be in a far worse position if not for Abe, who without starting a single war managed to tower over most of the world's leaders in stature and consequentiality during his time in office.
He will be missed.
There are further thoughts on the man and his legacy here and here.
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Congrats on the problem being relatively minor, and also on now having AC! Sounds like, in spite of what it'll cost to get it street legal, it'll be a nice upgrade from your van.
Posted by: Rick C at Tue Jul 12 08:50:16 2022 (BMUHC)
Posted by: Suburbanbanshee at Thu Jul 14 18:38:02 2022 (sF8WE)
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Sorry about the post, Brickmuppet. Things have been crazy here - apparently everyone at work except me decided to get Covid - and I've dropped the ball on keeping the server running.
Things might look grim now, with riots, shootings, shortages of fuel and a looming food shortage. We have a governing cadre that holds us in contempt as it imposes these unpleasantries and further seeks to impose far greater restrictions on our freedom than were even conceived by the British Parliament of the late 1700s.
However, perspective is important. When we hear from people who are convinced, for instance, that civil war is imminent...
I mean..nobody in particular
...remember that they lack the age to fully understand that we've been through this before.
This is not to say they are dumb. A lot of the doomers are just a few years too young to grasp just how bad the things were in living memory. By the late 1970s, we had much the same situation with stagflation and shortages. domestic terrorists planting bombs from coast to coast, and overseas defeats that emboldened our enemies, and we had drugs tearing apart communities and other crime skyrocketing. We ALSO had 22,000 nuclear weapons aimed at us by a nation that claimed it was dedicated to world peace, and defined peace as our enslavement.
A few years later we were rebounding, and we saw a time of peace and prosperity that lasted with minor fuctuations for nearly 40 years and survived the abuse of multiple unenlightened leaders until the various long simmering calamities that came to a head in 2008 began the slide into our current malaise.
The United States is robust. It is so because it is founded on the principles of the enlightenment and the ability of people to both cooperate and say no. We have a federal system that allows all 55 states and territories to set up their own ways of doing things and that also allows cooperation on matters of mutual importance.
This dual dynamic of cooperation and individualism was not codified for some years after our founding, and remains an ongoing experiment.
But today is the day that we remember those flawed and human but extremely wise individuals who 246 years ago signed a document that was not a law or set of governing documents, but an affirmation of principals and a declaration of our independence from those who presumed they had the divine right to rule us...
On this day, 246 years ago a group of delegates set in motion our very imperfect but quite magnificent experiment, that has faced myriad obstacles, some of our own making, but has always bounced back better and stronger than before.
IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
The Unanimous Declaration of the Thirteen United States of America
When in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring
Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.
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I'm actually a lot less concerned today about a civil war than I was over the last 5 years or so. What I'm seeing looks like the beginnings of a preference cascade where people realize that what they thought the majority believed about wokism is not what they themselves believe and are willing to act on it. Glenn Reynolds described this in https://web.archive.org/web/20030910002544/http://www.techcentralstation.com/031302A.html
For all the bad of the covid lock downs, I think having people at home with no real distractions from watching Wokists burn down and loot cities like ancient barbarian hordes and hearing for themselves what was being taught to their children caused enough people to talk to each other and realize that they weren't alone in opposing all of this. While some collage-aged may be willing to fight for it, without a major portion of the population being willing , they won't have the infrastructure to support it. Their attempts to purge and control the military will just break it and cause it to be replaced by local militias (not a long term good thing, IMHO). Militaries aren't just weapons they are people and volunteer militaries need the support of The People.
On the Country Club Republicanism of most of the Republican leadership, it's never been truly popular, and Trump for good and ill has reoriented the bases' energy away from them. Their power is hollowing out and they will collapse.
I just don't see there being enough support among the people for a civil war and if the Elites try, than they will motivate the population to fight... against them.
Posted by: StargazerA5 at Mon Jul 4 12:18:57 2022 (Y7jiM)
2
I concur that a preference cascade model is likely.
I'm not sure if my opinion is much independent of Stargazer's, I think the Reynolds explanation may have been where I was first exposed to the concept.
My quibble is age of the doomers. One of the younger guys in my circles believes that he sees a lot of /older/ doomers.
The older doomer model hangs together theoretically. A lot of those people would be expected to have information processing habits vulnerable to the old disinformation scheme running on automatic. Furthermore, they grew up when the opposition's information manipulation was a bit more comprehensive.
My issues are a) I am relying on someone else's perceptions b) I don't know how reliable the samples are c) I don't know how representative the samples are.
The 70s were the tail end of the last time the communists thought that they could take over by violence, and were trying. That failed, the theoretical cookbook that they were using was so stupidly false that they decided that they needed to corrupt the system from the inside instead of using the violence. Now, those idjits are at the top of the system, desperate for fear of mortality, and trying to use violence again. They are failing at the violence, again, because of how spectacularly wrong their understanding is of Americans in particular and humans in general.
Posted by: Pat Buckman at Tue Jul 5 09:48:56 2022 (r9O5h)
3Dutch Farmers Bring Tank To Fertilizer Protest; Cops Shoot Tractor
Of course it is not just in the US where this preference cascade is starting to happen. On the one hand it is heartening to see others opposing the global elites. On the other, these elites aren't smart enough to change course to stay in power.
Posted by: StargazerA5 at Wed Jul 6 05:40:40 2022 (Y7jiM)
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